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Shadow Inventory: Now is the time to freak out

by blogger1
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on Wednesday, 19 September 2012
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Regardless of what you’ve heard, yes, it is time to freak out about shadow housing inventory!

That is, it is time to freak out about the many deals available and profits to be made thanks to shadow inventory being kept in the closet…

Savvy real estate investors are realizing that shadow real estate inventory is quickly becoming more of a blessing that a concern.

Few are now concerned about it having a significant, negative impact on the market today but there is no denying that it is lurking out there in a big way. Some have said the percentage of inventory in the shadows has dropped by as much as 30% in the last couple of years. However, there is no question that foreclosures have been surging by double digits in some states and Morgan Stanley recent projected there could be 5.7 million shadow properties being held off the market right now.

Holding these properties off-market is good for real estate investors and is pumping up home prices. Sure you’d like to do more deals and have them falling in your lap rather than having to look for them and some might say it is better to get foreclosures over and done with. However, no one wants a flood of distressed homes setting the recovery back right now and do you really want to be focused on fighting over REOs and having to overpay in ridiculous bidding wars.

On bright side shadow inventory means there are plenty of bargain properties out there for investors for the next 3-5 years while spreads grow and savvy real estate investors know that there are ways around the bulk of the competition, ways to get the lead and lock in profits when they buy regardless of what big money heavy weights might want a piece of the real estate pie.
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How Concerned About Shadow Inventory Should We Be?

by blogger1
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on Monday, 17 October 2011
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‘Shadow inventory’ is a term being thrown around more and more in the news. Is it something that real estate investors should be worried about or is it just more scaremongering?

Shadow inventory are the properties that banks have foreclosed on or which are being foreclosed on and are not currently actively listed for sale. Some have come out in the news proclaiming that this additional inventory potentially threatens to further damage the housing market and weaken home values due to over supply.

Currently there are around 3.5 million properties for sale in the US and we are on track to see approximately 5 million units sold this year. Not a bad ratio at all. This puts us at about 9 months worth of inventory or 3 months more than were we would like to be at in a healthy real estate market.

Right now we are on the right path but the worry is that more homes coming on the market could skew the picture. Some have thrown out numbers as high as an additional 3.5 million properties which could come up for sale. However, when you actually dig into these numbers they are based on a lot of assumptions and not what is likely to happen. The banks certainly are holding a lot of additional inventory which is slowly making its way on to the market. This is actually smart for them to do strategically and will be great for real estate investors as controlled release will keep values up yet continue to provide bargain priced wholesale properties for several years.

However, many of these news articles are trying to count homes which have just fallen delinquent on their mortgages or have just received a notice of default. Note that this can happen on properties which are just 30 days late on their loans, leaving plenty of time for homeowners to catch up on their payments. Many more of these homeowners are likely strategically defaulting in order to motivate lenders to grant them loan modifications and have no intention of letting their homes go. Others will sell quickly as short sales especially with banks like Wells Fargo no openly offering $10,000 to $20,000 to homeowners to hand in their keys amicably.

So the bottom line for real estate investors is that there will continue be many deals to be done and that ‘shadow inventory’ is probably not as big a threat as some sensational headlines would like to make out.
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