While some real estate commentators have continued to take to the media to proclaim the housing market will stay strong due to underbuilding and a need for more inventory, a new report from Bloomberg argues that builders are already suffering from oversupply.
Why is there a disparity in these claims, what do the numbers show, and how can struggling home builders become a great source of deal flow for real estate wholesalers?
Too Many New Homes
A new report from Bloomberg states that US home builders are already being lumbered with too many unsold homes.
Inflation in living costs and rapidly rising interest rates have been pricing many buyers out of the market. According to data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), this June saw the most new homes delivered to market in 12 years. The same month, buyer activity dropped to its lowest level in 10 years.
Figures from the US Census Bureau show new home inventory has rocketed to almost 10 months of supply. Compared to the competitive market in which homes were recently selling in a day with multiple offers or waiting lists.
Some builders fear that they are going to be stuck with more unsold new homes than in the last crisis.
Why Are Builders Getting Stuck?
Common reasons that builders are finding themselves in this situation, even when the existing home sales market may be stronger include:
Pricing new homes at the peak or above market value
Lack of affordable housing
Building the wrong type of inventory for consumers
Overbuilding in the wrong areas
It is worth noting that the most recent data from BankProspector also shows a dramatic spike in construction loan defaults. Lenders may be slowing down draws, and are fearful of extending more time to builders who are hitting maturity dates.
Turning Builder Surplus Into Deal Flow
This surplus of inventory can be great deal flow for investors.
You can help builders close out communities by acquiring their last remaining units so they can get cashed out and onto the next project.
Many builders may be stuck with furnished model homes that they would like to liquidate.
In other cases, those at the front end of new projects need to pre-sell a percentage of units to obtain financing. You can step in and grab multiple units as sizable discounts.
Or perhaps you can acquire and wholesale stalled construction projects and unfinished homes for flippers and other builders who will finish them.
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